Last week, as I sat on a call with some of the leading experts detailing the stimulus afforded by the CARES Act to combat the COVID-19, I alternated between fighting feelings of hopelessness and hopefulness.
Recently I was informed that in Deezire's rules guide it says that Fog Of War logic is disabled. That is not the case at all, It is quite simple to put Fog Of War back into the game.;Here's the entries you need to modify in the Rules(md) file. FOG OF WAR: How Kodak Accidentally Discovered Radioactive Fallout, And The A-Bomb, in World War Two. Posted by Glenn Reynolds at 1:00 pm InstaPundit is a.
Our lawmakers are hoping that the legislation – a record-setting stimulus package – will stem the economic carnage. This week alone we saw 6.6 million Americans claim unemployment. Seemingly the news gets a little worse each day and every evening briefing bring us a fresh set of statistics and recommendations for how to battle and help to contain the virus.
Everyone from those in Congress down to my 4-year old daughter wants an answer. When will it be all over? Will social distancing work? Heck, when is it ok to actually talk to my neighbor?
The uncomfortable answer is quite simple while extremely unsettling: We just don't know.
This fact has not stopped people from predicting. There are ‘educated' guesses galore, from the talking heads on TV, to the CDC, to your Facebook friend Cindy who wields expert advice on what's going to come next. In our current battle against the coronavirus and the subsequent economic fallout, we are experiencing something called the ‘Fog of War.' So, what exactly is this haze?
Fog of War: A Definition.
The fog of war (German: Nebel des Krieges) refers to the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by participants in military operations. The term seeks to capture the uncertainty regarding one's own capability, adversary capability, and adversary intent during an engagement, operation, or campaign. The fog of war is a reality in all military conflict.
Precision and certainty are unattainable goals, but modern military doctrine suggests a tradeoff of precision and certainty for speed and agility.
If you are a military history buff like I am, you've heard this term often and observed how it describes making accurate decisions during a battle which is naturally filled with imprecision and error. Normally, this ‘fog' is pointed to as a reason a particular commander made a very poor decision that led to disaster. History is written by the victors and if that ‘victory' in hindsight may have seemed inevitable, so does the defeat. In those cases of defeat, we are left to scratch our heads and wonder…
'What the heck were they thinking?'
The truth is, they were doing just that – thinking. However, they were not doing so with a clear mind. The fog of war can lead some of the best minds to make mistakes whether it be a coach making a haphazard decision on fourth down or a general deciding not to retreat and cut his losses. In both instances, the final tally on the scoreboard always shines bright on whether a decision paid off or was poor.
Today's Financial Fog of War
Napoleon wasn't regarded as the best military commander for nothing and yet he lost in spectacular fashion at Waterloo, a battle he was winning for 80% of the time until his infamous defeat. I'm certainly not a professional historian but I've advised clients through major financial downturns like the Dot.Com bust and Great Recession and I'm feeling a certain sense of déjà vu. not because the situations are so similar, but because the reactions and mistakes of investors are eerily similar. This got me to thinking:
Does the Fog of War mirror what we are encountering right now?
Are people experiencing their own financial fog?
If the Fog of War can defeat even the best of general what chance does the average investor have?
What can you do to battle your own hazy conditions?
Can this fog be avoided? Maybe, maybe not. However, we can surely arm ourselves against the effects of the fog and uncertainty by identifying two specific issues that make us more prone to mistakes.
- A poor strategic decision made well before the battle that left an army exposed or weakened.
- An error in decision-making under duress that the leader, under normal circumstances, would never have made.
Ask yourself the following questions.
Has COVID-19 revealed any weaknesses in my financial life?
Is there something ingrained in my plan that is going to leave me exposed?
Am I feeling so stressed that I believe my decision making on investing may be compromised? (answer this question only after you open this month's statement)
The Importance of Reinforcements.
In the attempt to address these errors let's focus on point #1 and talk about your current emergency fund. Do you have one? How long will it last if you can't make money or must take a pay cut? I know a popular financial celebrity wants you to leave 3 months of expenses in the bank, but given today's circumstances, will that be enough?
Let's look to Napoleon and his disaster at Waterloo for guidance. In military terms, a substantial ‘emergency fund' is like keeping a reserve force well behind the lines and only committing that force to battle when threat is imminent. As the ‘General' of your financial plan, you hope to never need to deploy your reserves, but you prepare, nonetheless. At Waterloo, Napoleon's adversary, the Duke of Wellington was able to deploy reserves out of sight from his enemy, (remember this is 1814). He only deployed the reserves when things got dicey. He also had an advanced plan for his 'emergency fund' for when the battle got out of hand. (Spoiler alert: it got out of hand!)
The CARES Act is designed to act as a backstop for millions of Americans who don't have a choice and can't work, aren't allowed to work or were laid off/furloughed due to all of this. Certainly, that's a good start. However, absent of more government intervention, who is going to bail you out if you need more reserves? What about the next time? There's always a next time. Wellington was so adept at defensive fighting that he deployed his troops in a manner that defeated arguably the greatest military commander the world had ever seen until that point.
Right now, this very instant, check your reserves. If you are lacking and are still fully employed take action now. Can you save more money than you already are? Are you spending money on things that you don't need? When's the last time you checked your budget? No budget? Create one.
When things don't go our way, and the proverbial fog is at its heaviest, it's nice to know there are reinforcements we can call in.
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Your decision-making strategy.
Let's look at mistake #2. When was the last time you checked in on your portfolio? Not necessarily its performance. Everyone is suffering at the moment. But, what about its makeup, especially in relation to where you are in life. Is the design of your portfolio exposing you to potential panicky decisions?
Once again, let's look Napoleon and analyze his mistakes.
Rather than attacking British forces in the early morning, he waited several hours to commence the battle, reportedly breakfasting leisurely. This may have been due to the heavy rain and his reliance on his superior artillery. He must have felt he had spare time to allow the ground to dry maybe because he underestimated the danger in front of him. Lastly, he may not have respected the skill of Wellington's forces, despite knowing of their experience during previous wars.
He also underestimated how far away the Prussian forces were from Waterloo. Those forces would arrive by the late afternoon. Had Napoleon attacked Wellington's British forces earlier and finished them off — which was possible due to his initially superior numbers — he could have faced off against the smaller Prussian force and defeated them separately. However, the arrival of the Prussian force at Waterloo led to the tired French forces being decisively outnumbered and attacked on multiple sides
Much like a battle plan, a sound investment strategy is well planned in advance. Honda black max generator gx390 owners manual. It looks to attempt to anticipate not only what are the objectives, but what it may have to overcome to achieve them. It should have a strategic objective, a time horizon, be well diversified and account for your personal risk tolerance. But does it also account for failure or adversity?
You handle adversity in an investment plan by creating a pre-planned response strategy for when your original plan starts to falter. We call this loss tolerance.
Loss tolerance is how much of your portfolio value you will endure losing, and still hold the line on your investment strategy for the inevitable rebound, when it comes.
To put this in perspective, no sane military commander would go into a battle with the expectation of zero casualties. Casualties and losses are an unfortunate reality of war and investing. If you go into battle as an investor who is overconfident and with no expectation of loss, the Fog of War will descend upon you like bees on honey. Here's comes the panic.
Heroes lore wind of soltia untuk android. To get through the fog you must consider the cost of your actions and determine the price of ‘casualties' in advance. I'm guessing that you invested in stocks primarily for the potential gain over the long term. Your cost of committing to this action is frequent small market losses (5-10%) and the occasional massive market loss (25-30%). If long-term growth is your primary objective, victory will come in the form of 8-10% rates of return over many years in exchange for some extreme battlefield casualties.
This is easy to say but tough to follow. Anticipating losses on paper, in the confines of a normal economy and normal life with no social distancing is easy to accept. The last decade of this market made it seem like casualties and market losses were a thing of the past. We may have become as overconfident as Napoleon.
Remember this, the key difference between actual battle casualties and investment loss is that casualties in war are permanent, while in a portfolio they are temporary. These losses/casualties will remain temporary unless you act by selling and making them permanent. This is the exact point when emotional decisions under the Fog of War can make us susceptible to the huge, irreversible mistake.
One way to combat panic is to check not only your account balance but the shares of the mutual fund, ETF, or stock you own. You'll be comforted to find out you own the same amount as you did two months ago. Your soldiers are still there, albeit with less ammunition.
Key Point
In the fog it's very easy to lose sight of the fact that the market will rebound, but we don't know when that will be. We have studied the years and years of bear markets and the facts show we will often rebound. Don't retreat from your long-term plan because the immediate future is cloudy. Give it time and don't panic. Remember, for a long-term investor sticking through the highs and lows is not only key, it's mandatory. The only person who gets hurt on a rollercoaster is the person who jumps off.
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Conclusion
The last two months feels like an eternity. In February the economy and the stock market were riding highs despite an impeachment saga that honestly feels like it played out when I still had hair. Although COVID-19 was truly out of left field, the economic downturn it's causing is something we've faced before… and will again. Recessions and bear markets are natural and happen, just not recently.
Let's take these lessons and resolve to use this crisis to shore up our own ‘armies' amidst the fog that right now seems denser than ever.
Life will go on, but we can always be better prepared. I leave you some advice from Napoleon himself. After all, he is considered the greatest general of all time. Even if he lost Waterloo.
'Victory belongs to the most persevering'
- Napoleon
'The opinions and forecasts expressed are those of the author, and may not actually come to pass. This information is subject to change at any time, based on market and other conditions and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security or investment plan. Past performance does not guarantee future results.'
Securities offered through Securities America, Inc., Member FINRA/SIPC. Advisory services offered through Securities America Advisors, Inc. Mission Point Planning Group and Securities America are separate companies.
The fog of war (German: Nebel des Krieges) is the uncertainty in situational awareness experienced by participants in military operations.[1] The term seeks to capture the uncertainty regarding one's own capability, adversary capability, and adversary intent during an engagement, operation, or campaign. Military forces try to reduce the fog of war through military intelligence and friendly force tracking systems. The term has become commonly used to define uncertainty mechanics in wargames.
Origin[edit]
The word 'fog' (German: Nebel), but not the exact phrase, in reference to 'uncertainty in war' was introduced by the Prussian military analyst Carl von Clausewitz in his posthumously published book, Vom Kriege (1832), the English translation of which was published as On War (1873):
War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth.
It has been pointed out that von Clausewitz does not use the exact phrase 'fog of war,' and also uses multiple similar metaphors, such as 'twilight' and 'moonlight', to describe a 'lack of clarity'.[3] The first known use of the exact phrase in text dates to 1896 in a book titled The Fog of War by Sir Lonsdale Augustus Hale, where it is described as 'the state of ignorance in which commanders frequently find themselves as regards the real strength and position, not only of their foes, but also of their friends.'[4]
Military[edit]
The fog of war is a reality in all military conflict. Precision and certainty are unattainable goals, but modern military doctrine suggests a trade off of precision and certainty for speed and agility. Militaries employ command and control (C2) systems and doctrine to partially alleviate the fog of war.
The term also applies to the experience of individual soldiers in battle: often cited is the pure confusion of direction, location, and perspective on a battlefield. Officers and soldiers become separated, orders become confused and subject to revision with poor communication. Sounds and vision are limited from the perspective of the individual and may not be easily resolved, resulting in a continuing uncertainty, a perceptual 'fog'.
The fog of war has been decreasing as intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance technology is improving. In 2016, Chief of Staff of the United States Army Gen. Mark A. Milley stated that 'On the future battlefield, if you stay in one place longer than two or three hours, you will be dead.. With enemy drones and sensors constantly on the hunt for targets, there won't even be time for four hours' unbroken sleep.'[5]
Simulations and games[edit]
Abstract and military board games sometimes try to capture the effect of the fog of war by hiding the identity of playing pieces, by keeping them face down or turned away from the opposing player (as in Stratego) or covered (as in Squad Leader[6]). Other games, such as the Kriegspiel chess-variant, playing pieces could be hidden from the players by using a duplicate, hidden game board.[7]
Another version of fog of war emulation is used by block wargaming where, much like Stratego, the blocks face each player, hiding their value. However, this also allows for incremental damage, where the block is rotated up to four times to indicate battle damage before the unit is eliminated from the playing field.[citation needed]
Solitaire games also by their nature attempt to recreate fog of war using random dice rolls or card draws to determine events.[8] Complex double-blind miniature wargames, including military simulations, may make use of two identical maps or model landscapes, one or more referees providing limited intelligence to the opposing sides, participants in the roles of sub-unit leaders, and the use of radio sets or intercoms.[citation needed]
In video games[edit]
A computer's ability to effectively hide information from a player is seen as a distinct advantage over board games when simulating war.[9] Fog of war in strategy video games refers to enemy units, and often terrain, being hidden from the player; this is lifted once the area is explored, but the information is often fully or partially re-hidden whenever the player does not have a unit in that area.[10]
Fallout 1 Fog Of War Game
The earliest use of fog of war was in the 1977 game Empire by Walter Bright.[11] Another early use of fog of war was the 1978 game Tanktics designed by Chris Crawford, which was criticized for its unreliable and 'confusing' fog of war system.[12] Crawford in 1982 suggested 'limit[ing] the amount of information available to the human player' to compensate for the computer's lack of intelligence.[13] In a 1988 Computer Gaming World article Dave Arneson called fog of war 'one of the biggest 'plus' factors in computer simulations', while Crawford concluded, using Tanktics as an example, that video game fog of war systems became less 'fun' the more realistic they were, leading the medium to instead use simplified systems.[14]
Two large Blizzard franchises, Warcraft and StarCraft, use a fog of war which only reveals terrain features and enemy units through a player's reconnaissance. Without a unit actively observing, previously revealed areas of the map are subject to a shroud through which only terrain is visible, but changes in enemy units or bases are not.[15] This is also common in both turn-based and real-time strategy games, such as the Close Combat series, Total War series, Age of Empires series, Red Alert series, Advance Wars series, Fire Emblem series and Sid Meier's Civilization series.[citation needed]
Fog of war gives players an incentive to uncover a game's world. A compulsion to reveal obscured parts of a map has been described to give a sense of exploring the unknown.[16] Crawford said that 'reasonable' uses of fog of war, such as needing to send out scouts, 'not only seem natural, but .. add to the realism and excitement of the game'[13]Merchant Prince displays over unexplored territory what Computer Gaming World described as a 'renaissance-style map of dubious accuracy'.[17] In some strategy games that make use of fog of war, enemy AI may have knowledge of the positions of all other units and buildings on the map regardless, to compensate for lack of true intelligence, which players may consider as cheating if discovered.[18] A designer may use fog of war to keep a game that has become impossible to win enjoyable, by hiding this fact from the player.[15]
Fallout 1 Fog Of War
See also[edit]
- C4ISTAR (Command, Control, Communication, Computing, Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance)
- Coup d'œil (able to discern tactics at a glance)
- Fingerspitzengefühl (instinctive response)
- Fog (weather phenomenon)
- Network-centric warfare (1990s theory from the US DoD)
- VUCA (Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity)
References[edit]
- ^Joint Service Command and Staff College, Advanced Command and Staff Course Notes dated 2001
- ^Carl von Clausewitz, Vom Kriege, Book 1, Chapter 3.
- ^Eugenia C. Kiesling (2001). 'On War Without the Fog'(PDF). Military Review. Retrieved 2014-11-07.
- ^'The fog of war', by Col. Lonsdale Hale, Royal Engineers (retired), Aldershot Military Academy, March 24, 1896.
- ^https://breakingdefense.com/2016/10/miserable-disobedient-victorious-gen-milleys-future-us-soldier/
- ^Squad Leader Rulebook, 4th Edition, section 25.0.
- ^Kriegspiel by Hans L. Bodlaender.
- ^Pulsipher, Lewis (2012). Game Design: How to Create Video and Tabletop Games, Start to Finish. McFarland. p. 227. ISBN978-0-786-46952-9.
- ^Sipe, Russell, ed. (April 1984). 'Carrier Force: The Fog of War at its Foggiest'. Computer Gaming World. Vol. 4 no. 2. pp. 22, 47. Retrieved 2017-03-15.
- ^Adams, Ernest (2014). Fundamentals of Game Design (3 ed.). New Riders Press. ISBN978-0-321-92967-9.
- ^Lewin, Christopher George (2012). '8'. War Games and their History. Stroud, Great Britain: Fonthill Media. ISBN978-1-78155-042-7.
- ^Proctor, Bob (January 1982). 'Tanktics: Review and Analysis'. Computer Gaming World. pp. 17–20.
- ^ abCrawford, Chris (December 1982). 'Design Techniques and Ideas for Computer Games'. BYTE. p. 96. Retrieved 19 October 2013.
- ^Sipe, Russell, ed. (April 1988). ''Fog of War': A Clearer View'. Computer Gaming World. No. 46. pp. 24–26, 52–53. Retrieved 2017-03-15.
- ^ abHowell, Dave (2010). 'StarCraft's Steps'(PDF). Archived from the original(PDF) on 2014-11-10. Retrieved 2014-11-10.
- ^Stowe, Jonah. 'Power, Knowledge and the Fog of War'. Gamechurch. Retrieved 2014-11-06.
- ^Carter, Tim (April 1994). 'The Prince Of Bribes'. Computer Gaming World. pp. 150, 152.
- ^Hagelbäck, Johan; Johansson, Stefan J. (2008). 'Dealing with Fog of War in a Real Time Strategy Game Environment'(PDF). 2008 IEEE Symposium on Computational Intelligence and Games. IEEE. Retrieved 2014-11-06 – via The University of Western Australia.
Further reading[edit]
- The Fog of War and Friction in Current Conflicts: Fundamental Aspects of the Management of Modern Conflicts Article by LCdr (Brazilian Navy) Osvaldo P. Caninas.
- Simulating the Fog of War Paper by RAND Corporation John K. Setear, February 1989.
